Monday, 18 August 2014

Week 34 trading stubs, more quality content on the way

Recap

The relatively slow start to trading after summer holidays came across handy as i had a chance to include some additional filters to trading that hopefully will generate better quality of the signals. With two posted setups in the last stub two weeks ago are still in the making i was pretty much flat this time. What i came up with was currency strenght board for a week using 3σ method mentioned in previuos stub. If you are interested to get into more details leave your email on the insights subscribing to more details. 

Weekly Currency Board

AUD
Bullish
Looking to go long  AUD/JPY and short GBP/AUD
JPY
Bearish
Longs for CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY
USD
Bullish
Shorts AUD/USD and longs USD/CAD
CAD
Bullish
Longs CAD/JPY shorts GBP/CAD
EUR
Bearish
Shorts EUR/NZD
NZD
Neutral
No positions
GBP
Bearish
Shorts for GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD,GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY
CHF
Bullish
Shorts GBP/CHF and NZD/CHF

Prime Risk Events (UTC time)

Tuesday

UK CPI (July), 9.30am: UK inflation is predicted to slow markedly this month, to -0.55% month-on-month and 1.39% year-on-year, from 0.2% and 1.9% respectively. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
US CPI (July), 1.30pm: Price growth in the US is forecast to ease back as well, to 0.1% MoM from 0.3% and to 2% from 2.1% YoY. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY
US housing starts and building permits (July), 1.30pm: The picture for US housing is expected to improve, with housing starts rising 8.6% to an annual rate of 970K (from a drop of -9.3% and a rate of 893K last month), while building permits should accelerate by 2.8% from -4.2% last month and an annual rate of 1 million from 963K last month. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY

Wednesday

Bank of England minutes (Aug), 9.30am: The all-important minutes of the latest meeting will carry much more weight than the actual decision, which provided no surprise as rates were left unchanged. The vote is expected to show one MPC member voting for a hike, and if any more break cover then the pound could see increased buying. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
Fed minutes (Aug), 7pm: The bull market is back, but the minutes will be carefully parsed for any signs that an interest rate rise is on the cards soon. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY

Thursday

Japan manufacturing PMI (Aug, preliminary), 2.35am: Japan's manufacturing survey is expected to rise from 50.5 to 51.9 in August, allaying some of the concerns from the recent poor GDP reading. Market to watch: Japan 225, USD/JPY
HSBC China manufacturing PMI (Aug, preliminary) 2.45am: The first reading for August is forecast to edge back slightly, from 51.7 to 51.6, but this will still be in expansion territory, being above the 50 mark. Market to watch: China A50, Hang Seng, AUD/USD, copper
France, Germany, eurozone PMIs (Aug, preliminary), 8am - 9am: Composite, manufacturing and services PMIs will be key to determining the performance of these economies in August, especially given the recent turndown in data from the currency union that has prompted expectations of ECB QE later in the year. Market to watch: CAC40, DAX, EStoxx 50, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
US initial jobless claims, 1.30pm: These rose above 300K in the most recent reading, but should drop back below once again, to 288K, as the US economy continues to improve. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY
US mfg PMI (Aug, preliminary), 2.45pm: The reading is expected to drop back slightly, to 55.5 from 55.8 last month, but consistent with lower activity in August. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY
US existing home sales (July), 3pm: The positive picture created earlier in the week by housing starts and building permits will be dispelled slightly if this data comes in as expected. Sales are forecast to drop by 0.8% in the month, from 2.6% growth in June, with the annual rate hitting 5 million from an earlier 5.04 million. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY

Friday

Canadian CPI (July) and retail sales (June), 1.30pm: The week ends quietly with Canadian data, with CPI expected to rise to 2.52% YoY from 2.4%, and reach 0.15% MoM from 0.1% in June. Meanwhile, retail sales should also rise, up 0.41% MoM from 0.4%, and remaining steady YoY at 4.8%. Market to watch: USD/CAD

 EUR/GBP

In terms of the longer term setups, will look into slightly unorthodox pairs this time, having said that earlier setups on EUR/USD and GBP/USD are still valid. 






NZD/CHF





 


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