After rather muted last week that proved to be very difficult to trade the coming one has much more clarity on the way. CAD and GBP turned the corner and are likely be major part of bullish rotation for the coming week, while EUR is likely to weaken. ECB stress test results may create lots of gaps over the weekend on EUR pairs. Another prime risk event is FOMC meeting on Wednesday, that should give more direction to USD for the coming weeks. RBNZ will have its rates announcement same day with expectations of NZD rates unchanged at 3.5%.
Weekly Currency Board
Prime Risk Events (UTC time)
Sunday 26 October
|European bank stress test results publishedMarket to watch: European banking stocks EStoxx 50|
Monday 27 October
|German IFO (October), 10am: The business climate reading is expected to rise fractionally, to 104.8 from 104.7 last month. Market to watch: DAX EUR/USD EUR/GBP |
US services PMI (October, preliminary), 2.45pm, pending home sales (October), 3pm: The PMI reading is expected to drop slightly, to 58.7 from last month’s 58.9, while pending home sales are expected to show growth of 1.1% MoM. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses
|US durable goods orders (September), 1.30pm: A gain of 0.4% is forecast for this number, with the core number (excluding transportation) rising 0.5%. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses |
US consumer confidence (October), 3pm: Consumer confidence is expected to reach 87.4 this month, from September’s 86. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses
|Japanese industrial production (September), 12.50am: After a 1.9% drop last month the data is expected to show a rise of 2.3%. Market to watch: Nikkei 225 USD/JPY |
Federal Open Market Committee meeting (October), 7pm: A dovish set of minutes from the last meeting provided some reassurance, but since then the turmoil has seen a number of members speak publicly. QE is still expected to end this month, but the Fed will likely look to make comment on how it views the global economic outlook. The statement on when interest rate increases are likely to begin will be closely watched. Market to watch: all major indices & FX pairs
|German unemployment (October), 9.55am: An increase of 5,000 in the month is expected, with the unemployment rate steady at 6.7%. Market to watch: DAX EUR/USD EUR/GBP |
US GDP (Q3, first reading), jobless claims, 1.30pm: A 2.9% figure is forecast, from the 4.6% of Q2. However this is the first reading and will almost certainly be revised. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses
German CPI (October, preliminary), 2pm: Data is expected to show YoY growth of 0.9% and a MoM fall of 0.1%. Market to watch: DAX EUR/USD EUR/GBP
|Bank of Japan monetary policy statement (October), 12.30am: Any signs that the BoJ is becoming more dovish could see further gains for USD/JPY and the Nikkei 225. Market to watch: Nikkei 225 USD/JPY |
Eurozone unemployment and CPI (October), 11am: YoY price growth is expected to be 0.4% for the month, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 11.5%. Market to watch: EStoxx 50 DAX CAC EUR/USD EUR/GBP
US Chicago PMI (October), 2.45pm, Michigan confidence (October, final), 2.55pm: The PMI number is expected to rise to 61.1, from the previous 60.5, while the final reading on confidence for October is expected to be revised up to 86.4 from 84.6. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses
Saturday 1 November
|Chinese manufacturing PMI (October), 2am: The forecast is for a reading of 51.35, up from September’s 51.1, which would provide some confidence that the sector is still growing modestly. Market to watch: China A50 Hang Seng FTSE 100 USD/JPY AUD/USD Copper|
CAD/CHFBullish BAT pattern is very close to completion going into coming week. It present fairly attractive risk/reward ratio as entry requires relatively short stop.
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