World Clock

Monday, 15 December 2014

Week 51 trading stubs, FOMC meeting on the way, last stub for 2014

Recap

This likely to be last week this year worth being involved in markets before the holidays period will kick in. Currency board below looks pretty much balanced with NZD still prevailing with bearish sentiment while EUR, CHF and CAD projected to be on the bull side. From fundamental perspective FOMC meeting on Wednesday is likely to have some effect on FX markets, with participants expecting some clues on when rate hike will be implemented for USD.

Weekly Currency Board


AUD
Bullish
Long AUD/NZD
USD
Neutral
No positions
EUR
Bullish
Longs EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD
NZD
Bearish
Short NZD/CHF; Longs AUD/NZD, EUR/NZD
GBP
Neutral
No positions
CHF
Bullish
Shorts CAD/CHF and NZD/CHF
JPY
Neutral
No positions
CAD
Bearish
Short CAD/CHF; Long EUR/CAD


Prime Risk Events (UTC time)

Monday 15 Dec

Japan large manufacturers’ outlook (Q4), 11.50pm: This is the forecast of business expectations and projected profits from large Japanese firms. The index is expected to hold steady at 13, as was the case in Q3. Market to watch: Nikkei 225   USD/JPY

US industrial and manufacturing production (November), 2.15pm: Industrial output in the US is expected to be 3.8% YoY , from 4% in October, while manufacturing production is expected to be 4.1%, from 3.4% last month. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

Tuesday
16 Dec

HSBC China manufacturing PMI (December, preliminary), 1.45am: This index is forecast to edge into contraction territory, at 49.7 for the month, from last month’s reading of 50. Market to watch: China A50   copper   mining stocks

German, eurozone manufacturing and services PMI (December, preliminary), 8.30am – 9am: The German readings are expected to improve, to 50.3 and 52.6 respectively, while eurozone numbers tick up to 50.5 and 51.5 respectively. Market to watch: EStoxx 50   DAX   EUR/USD   EUR/GBP

UK CPI (November), 9.30am: Price growth is forecast to be flat MoM in November and 1.2% YoY. Market to watch: GBP/USD   EUR/GBP

German ZEW index (December), 10am:  The current situation reading is expected to be 5.4, from last month’s 3.3, while the expectations reading improves to 20 from 11.5. Market to watch: DAX   EUR/USD   EUR/GBP

US housing starts and building permits (November), 1.30pm:  These figures are expected to be better, with housing starts rising 2.5% while building permits fall by 2.9% to an annual rate of 1.06 million. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

US manufacturing PMI (December, preliminary), 2.45pm: From 54.8 in November, the number is expected to improve to 56 for December. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

Wednesday 17 Dec
 

Bank of England minutes (December), UK unemployment figures and average earnings (November), UK ILO unemployment rate (October), 9.30am: BoE minutes will be useful for their commentary on the economic outlook and also for any possible changes in voting patterns. Meanwhile jobless claims are forecast to fall by 20,000, while the three-month ILO rate is expected to fall to 5.9% for October from 6%. Average weekly earnings are expected to rise, by 1.2% from 1% in October. Market to watch: GBP/USD   EUR/GBP

Eurozone CPI (November, final), 10am: No revisions are expected here, as the figure holds at 0.3% YoY for overall CPI and 0.7% for core CPI (excluding the more volatile food and energy elements). Market to watch: EUR/USD   EUR/GBP

US CPI (November), 1.30pm: The impact of oil prices will be felt here, as the MoM figure comes in at -0.1% (from 0%) and the YoY number falls to 1.5% from 1.7% last month. Market to watch: dollar crosses

EIA crude inventories, 3.30pm: Stockpiles are expected to hit 5.9 million barrels from 1.45 million last week. Market to watch: US light crude

Federal Open Market Committee meeting (December), 7pm: The final meeting of 2014, no statement will be released and the interest rate is not expected to change. Market to watch: major indices and currency crosses

Thursday
18 Dec

German IFO (December), 9am: Sentiment among German businesses is actually expected to improve, with the index rising to 105.5 from 104.7. Market to watch: DAX   EUR/USD   EUR/GBP

UK retail sales (November), 9.30am: MoM sales are expected to be up 0.4% in November from 0.8% last month, while the YoY figure rises to 4.4% from 4.3%. Market to watch: GBP/USD   EUR/GBP

US initial jobless claims, 1.30pm: After a 294K print for the previous week 252K claims are expected to have been filed last week. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

US services PMI (December, preliminary), Philadelphia Federal Reserve (December), leading indicators (November), 2.45pm – 3pm: Services sector growth is expected to be in line with last month, at 56.2, while the Philly Fed index is forecast to drop to 26 from 40.8 (although it is noted for its volatility), while leading indicators are expected to grow by 0.5% from 0.9% last month. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

Friday 19 Dec

Bank of Japan monetary policy statement (December), 12.30am: Investors should watch out for any change in the language of the statement and any hint of further easing. Market to watch: Nikkei 225   USD/JPY

Canadian CPI (November), 1.30pm: The MoM figure is expected to be -0.2%, from 0.1% last month, while the YoY rate decreases to 2.3% from 2.4%. Market to watch: USD/CAD

Next year has lots of changes for this blog lined up therefore stay tuned.

Have a good one traders and click the button below if you choose to contribute to further development of this blog.