Monday, 1 September 2014

Week 36 trading stubs, busy week ahead

Recap

In terms of last weeks setups only one of them on USD/JPY had stalled at 104's anticipated area, we have seen some selling pressure since, however it was not enough to take this pair much lower, as at stands at the moment we are testing 104.25 highs. EUR/USD did not respect 1.32's even handle level at all, so we are clearly past this level at this point. The key event for this pair this week will be rates announcement on Thursday, where we could hear more about QE plans from ECB. Volatility across the FX board will likely to be high this week as RBA will have it's rates decision on Tuesday for AUD, BOC on Wednesday for CAD and BOE on Thursday for GBP prior to ECB. 

Weekly Currency Board


AUD
Bearish
Short AUD/USD, AUD/CHF  long GBP/AUD
USD
Bullish
Short AUD/USD, EUR/USD long USD/CAD
EUR
Bearish
Shorts EUR/NZD,EUR/USD, EUR/GBP,EUR/CHF
NZD
Neutral
No positions
GBP
Bullish
Long GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD shorts EUR/GBP
CHF
Bullish
Shorts NZD/CHF, EUR/CHF and CAD/CHF
JPY
Neutral
No positions
CAD
Bearish
Short CAD/CHF long USD/CAD

Prime Risk Events (UTC time) 

Monday

HSBC China mfg PMI (August, final), 2.45am: No change is expected to this number, remaining at 50.3 for the month. Market to watch: Global indices, AUD/USD, copper
German GDP (Q2, final), 7am: Growth is forecast to remain unchanged at -0.2% QoQ and 0.8% YoY. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
France, German, eurozone mfg PMI (August, final), 8.50am - 9am: These are expected to remain unchanged for the month. Market to watch: EU Stocks 50, DAX, CAC40, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
UK mfg PMI (August), 9.30am: After a reading of 55.4 in July, the number is forecast to drop back to 55 for August. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

Tuesday

UK construction PMI (August), 9.30am: After coming in at 62.4 for July, the data is expected to show a slight drop, to 61.2. Market to watch: GBP/USD
US manufacturing PMI (August, final), 2.45pm: This data point is also forecast to remain at its previous reading, at 58. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

Wednesday

China non-manufacturing PMI (August), 2am: From a reading of 54.2 in July, the index is expected to rise to 55.1 for August. Market to watch: global indices, AUD/USD, copper
Australian GDP (Q2), 2.30am: After rising 1.1% QoQ and 3.5% YoY in Q1, growth in the Commonwealth's economy is forecast to slow to 0.4% QoQ and 3% YoY. Market to watch: AUD/USD, S&P/ASX 200
French, German, eurozone services PMIs (August, final), 8.50am - 9am: As with the manufacturing numbers earlier in the week, these indices are not forecast to change. Market to watch: EU Stocks 50, DAX, CAC40, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
UK services PMI (August), 9.30am: The most important of the UK PMI readings is expected to drop back to 58.45 from 59.1 in July. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
Eurozone retail sales (July), 10am: This reading is expected to show a contraction of 0.2% MoM. Market to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
Bank of Canada rate decision (Sept), 3pm: The Canadian central bank is expected to leave rates at 1% for the month. Market to watch: USD/CAD
Federal Reserve Beige Book, 7pm: This informal survey of managers around the US economy should reflect the continued improvement in economic data from the world's largest economy. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

Thursday

Bank of Japan statement (time tbc): It looks like the BoJ's asset purchase programme might need to be fired up again, as household spending continues to drop following the April sales tax. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, USD/JPY, other yen crosses
Bank of England rate decision (Sept), 12pm: Minutes last month showed two policy makers voting for a rate hike, but this meeting is still not expected to show any change in rates. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
ECB rate decision (Sept), 12.45pm: The ECB is unlikely to move on QE, or indeed on rates, this month, despite the Jackson Hole speech and accompanying notes. With the TLTROs still to be activated (16th September) the likelihood is that Mario Draghi will still hint at further measures but only when the effects of the existing policies become clear. Market to watch: European indices, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
ADP payroll change (August), 1.15pm: This number is released a day later than usual due to the Labor Day holiday on Monday. The expected figure is 215K, down from 218K last month. Market to watch: global indices, dollar crosses
US initial jobless claims, 1.30pm: After dropping to 298K last week, the figure is expected to bounce back to 303K. Keep an eye out for the four-week moving average number as well, which last week hit its lowest level since late 2006. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses
US services PMI (August, final), 2.45pm: This is forecast to remain unchanged from the earlier estimate. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses

Friday

US non-farm payrolls (August), 1.30pm: Official US job data is expected to show an increase of 220K jobs this month, from 209K last month, while the unemployment rate holds steady at 7%. Also watch for revisions to the figures for previous months.
Market to watch: global indices, all major currency pairs, gold, oil, copper

 EUR/CHF

In terms of the pattern setups two patterns looking to complete this week, see the charts below.


 GBP/AUD





 


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